Once again it is that time of the year for the hype cycle projections to be released by Gartner. At the beginning of this year I highlighted a few thoughts on what virtual worlds held in store for 2010, while looking back at 2009. Click here to look back at last years predictions.
While the year has yet to come to a close the graph below represents public virtual worlds coming out of the trough of disillusionment and towards the slope of enlightenment with an overall projection of 5 to 10 years for mainstream adoption. My thought is that they will take less time to become mainstream, but I guess time will tell.
Being a cowgirl at heart, I know that in some areas of the country ranchers can run their cattle herds anywhere they want unless a property owner fences them out, otherwise known as ‘Open Range.’ So you may be thinking to yourself… what in the heck does this have to do with NPC’s or better known as Non-Player Characters? Well… in a virtual world one can have free roaming (otherwise referred to as ‘open range’) NPC’s wandering around. The approach of a controlled or intelligent virtual world environment offers the use of Non-Player Characters to guide the trainee through the simulation exercises while NOT allowing these NPC’s to wander around in the ‘open range’ if you will. Rather these NPC’s have specific purposes to their actions and interactions with the trainees. Virtual world training inside a smart fence, so to speak.
More often than not we here at Visual Purple meet with a client during an initial project kick-off meeting to lay out the project work plan, but by the end of the project so much has changed. It’s like you take a look back in time and think “gee if I had it to do all over again I would have done it this way…” Well I guess I should first say that this happens a lot in life, but when building a project from the ground up you must always anticipate that you could have done it a million other ways- just like building a house. You meet with the architect and draw up the plans, hire the contractor, pick fixtures and finishes and by the time the home is completed you still think, “I should have built the kitchen bigger and added an island or I should have added a window here.” Our goal here at Visual Purple is to help clients leverage our vast experience when considering possible ways of presenting training materials in an engaging manner. All the while thinking outside the box so the simulation is built in a way that the client doesn’t want to go back in time and say “I really wish they would have told me to present the training in this manner.” Well this is where our expertise and years of experience are here to help! Granted one of the many benefits of Visual Purple’s training products is our proven technologies that allow for rapid updates and changes. So unlike a newly constructed house that is more difficult to make any major changes and/ or updates to, Visual Purple simulations can easily be ‘remodeled’ later should the need arise.
It sure seems like Linden Lab was all the talk in the virtual world industry for a few weeks when they launched the much-anticipated Second Life Enterprise. Well the SL Enterprise glitz and glamour has fizzled out and now Linden Lab is even making more changes which has its user base up in arms. The pillar of the virtual world industry, who was the pioneer and stage setter has now gone even as far as increasing their pricing structure for non-profits and educators. Admittedly, SL is still granting Homestead and Open Space to qualifying organizations, but non-profits and educators make up a large part of overall publicity around SL and a 200 percent price spike is quite substantial to these already budget-strapped organizations. We also know they have had internal changes as well, so what does all this really add up to? Did they put the cart before the horse? Did they price themselves out of the market? Is the loyal SL user base still there? Are these really the best business decisions or is this the beginning of the end for Second Life? My projection is that many will now turn to OpenSim grids and give up on the high’s and low’s that has become common place for Second Life. Even fundraising efforts have declined within Second Life. SL’s 2010 Relay for Life only raised $222,804 for cancer research while the 2009 event raised $274,000. Maybe they will surprise us all but as of now the business decisions being made seem to have no real rhyme or reason behind them (at least not to us outsiders), but maybe I will be proven wrong in the future. Will Microsoft be part of the picture…I guess time will tell.
We’re pretty excited! This post has been a long time coming… We are officially announcing a new capability of which we are very proud: ‘Hybrid Simulations’…where we lovingly bake in the best elements of Decision-Based Sims with the cost-effectiveness and flexibility of Virtual Worlds. Decision-Based Simulations are great except when it comes to expanding the world or making rapid changes in a cost-effective manner. Virtual worlds make it easy to expand or update but often fall short when it comes to perceptions that trainees won’t stay on task. We’ve learned through experience that many clients are looking for something beyond the perennially popular decision-based simulation, but aren’t quite sold on virtual worlds, mostly because of the negative perceptions associated with SL-based worlds. Working with select clients over the past 18 months, we have created a successful new approach and began delivering Hybrid Sims earlier this year – marrying the best of both worlds.
These interactive, decision-based virtual environment simulations perform exceptionally well and are produced quicker (in a few months) and at lower cost. We think we like to call it “3D vWorld-DB simulation software” – though our CEO still calls them Hybrid Sims. So, maybe, just maybe, we’ll stick with Hybrid Sims. These 3D animated simulations are custom built and the scenarios play out in a private virtual world. So what other advantages do these custom-built simulations present you may ask? Increased immersion, interactivity, layered decision-making, and feedback to the user (just to name a few). And perhaps the biggest advantage of all, is that this hybrid vWorld-DB simulation, er, I mean Hybrid Sim, is able to run in a browser!
Hybrid simulations also bring their own ‘tool kit’ if you will, which includes the following:
• Idea Generating Tools designed to break current, routine thinking patterns and encourage thinking beyond the status quo through the use of provocation and challenge;
• Focus Tools designed to broaden where, and from whom, students search for new ideas;
• Treatment Tools that are designed to consider real-world constraints, available resources, and other means of support; and
• Harvest Tools that are designed to maximize value received from idea generating output.
Visual Purple isn’t the typical virtual world builder where the ‘average’ virtual world will offer a free roaming character that the trainee can navigate around, our virtual worlds have walls (visible and invisible) and threaded missions to accomplish rather than just the free roaming nature that so many businesses worry about turning an employee loose in, just to “wander” around aimlessly. So there you have it folks, our latest and greatest way of presenting our clients with cutting edge simulation technologies. Stay tuned for more in-depth reviews of the new Hybrid Simulations.
With the recent announcement of Linden Labs (you know the company behind Second Life) to begin restructuring, one must wonder what the future has in store for our friends. Does this really translate to the end of all the hype surrounding virtual worlds? Well as most of you know that follow this blog, I have long predicted the VW hype to trend downward. The news that Linden Labs will more actively pursue browser-based virtual worlds, doesn’t really surprise me (our CEO has been beating them up on this for some time). It seems as though this future for VW’s is inevitable, in my opinion it’s not a matter of if, just when. The large client download that virtual worlds tend to entail does not entice the critics nor skeptics, however once browser-based virtual worlds become more of a reality, those skeptics may be hard pressed to not change their minds.
The second announcement from LL entailed the fact that SL may become more integrated with social networking, again not a big surprise to most as I and many others have been predicting this for a while. With the meteoric rise of social networking the past few years, I believe this only to be a natural progression in the right direction.
What happens if Linden shuts down the enterprise sector of the company? Why wouldn’t companies go for the enterprise edition of Second Life? The opportunity for Second Life to be big is still there, despite the downturn of the hype cycle that exists now. If Linden Lab is able to introduce a valuable social networking integration within a virtual world, many may adapt to the idea and become believers. As for the browser-based usability access of a VW, if it is done right it has great potential. Time will tell if Linden Lab, the company behind Second Life, has the ability to re-capture believers and reel in the skeptics.
It seems like all of the hype around live conferences has sizzled out…while some still attend these long drawn out networking events, money and time savings is on the forefront of leading to mass adoption of virtual events. The worldwide virtual conference market is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56% between the period of 2010 and 2015. This prediction has been made by Market Research Media Ltd, a leading market and technology research company, in its recent research report “Virtual Conference & Trade Show Market Forecast 2010-2015“. In the estimates made by the report the worldwide virtual conference and trade show market is predicted to reach $18.6 Billion over the period of 2010 to 2015 (and yes, I did say billion with a B).
Image Courtesy of Market Research Media
One of the big advantages of virtual events is that they are able to provide a host of reporting mechanisms on the fly, unlike traditional live conference events. Thus ultimately being better able to qualify and track leads. Interaction between the participants is much more straight-forward and saves wasted time that is spent with unqualified leads. Although the more personal interaction is taken out of the virtual conference scenario; great relationships are still able to be built. Not to mention the big factor of cost, which is much less than traditional face-to-face conferences. The fact of the matter is that event marketing has changed… now there is no need for the hefty price tags associated with fancy displays and travel costs in getting representatives to and from the trade show.
By Rudy Helm, Audio and Quality Assurance Tech, Visual Purple, LLC.
Continuing with our vlog ‘how-to’ series called, ‘Emulating Human Voice-overs with TTS Voices’ we now offer this newer presentation, suffixed as ‘Part Three’. We recommend that you review Part One and Part Two first but that is not necessarily a requirement. For this exercise we snipped out a small piece from one of our past projects. Unlike the premise of Part 2, where you learned to sync a TTS voice to a human voice-actor, this video tutorial will focus on the tactics of humanizing synthetic voice-clips with added detail. Today’s presentation does not only reinforce the techniques discussed in Part 1 and Part 2, but will show how to set the talk-pace to improve the phrasings and expressions of synthetic voices. And the concept of formant manipulation is introduced as well. Disclaimer: these are helpful tips, but generalized. Not all editing tools or TTS engines respond to specific techniques that you might try in the very same way. Mainly, just try to grasp the concepts, then adapt your technique to idiosyncrasies of your chosen tools.
The How-To-Humanize your TTS Clips exhibit (Exhibit Part 3). A follow-up on VO elements originally presented in Part 2’s vlog. This time, we introduce Formant handling.
As always check back in for more on this topic and other fun and useful information!
Frustration abounds! Lately it seems as though the term “virtual worlds” has morphed to such a wide variety of meanings that it is nearly impossible to go back to “meaning zero.” No longer is one going to understand what I mean when describing a virtual world, instead most folks have fallen victim to confusing articles and experiences resulting in many different visions of what a virtual world is. It is a shame that it has come down to this and a few months ago I thought it would iron itself out…alas. The social gaming applications are overtaking the term/ meaning of virtual worlds (and no I do not consider Farmville on Facebook to be a virtual world). These social games are giving virtual worlds the wrong image in people’s minds, which is very unfortunate. These iPhone types of game applications are simplistic in nature, non-immersive and frankly just a graphically unimpressive experience. Sure, I could just settle on ‘serious virtual worlds’ instead, but compared to Farmville, what is considered serious nowadays?
Yes they are more fantasy like virtual worlds- not too much mimicking of the real world going on here folks. Oh yes and unrealistic avatars too. YoVille compared to Second Life is like comparing apples to oranges. Social gaming has taken over the real meaning of virtual worlds, more and more users are signing up daily for the likes of World of Warcraft and Habbo. The technology bar has officially been lowered. Facebook and 2D games take things back a few steps in some respects, but that’s where the users and the money are fortunately or unfortunately. Virtual worlds have now gone social and there is no turning back to redefine the term. Immersive, 3D environments must now take on a new name, other than the virtual world term. So maybe it’s virtual training or perhaps even a virtual collaborative environment, time will tell. Regardless, much opportunity abounds for users and producers across training and social gaming/media.
By Rudy Helm, Audio and Quality Assurance Tech, Visual Purple, LLC.
Since there was great interest in a blog entry last Fall called, ‘Emulating Human Voice-overs with TTS Voices’ I have elected to present those lessons as a Vlog, and so it makes sense that we give this newer presentation the same title, but suffixed with ‘Part Two’. We recommend that you review Part One’s scenario before you proceed (to do so, click here) but doing so doesn’t have to be a requirement. For this exercise we snipped out a small piece from Part One’s cut-scene where there were several actors in the cast, but there is only one actor dealt with in this clip. Recall that the premise is that your project’s budget can afford only one human voice-actor. So, you’ve recorded your one human voice actor doing each role of the entire cast. This video tutorial will show the techniques discussed in Part One. Learn how to sync synthetic voices to the phrasings and expressions of your human model. Disclaimer: these are helpful tips, but generalized. Not all editing tools or TTS engines respond to specific techniques that you might try in the very same way. Mainly, just try to grasp the concepts, then adapt your technique to idiosyncrasies of your chosen tools.
Sound effects were mentioned in Part One, but that discussion will need to wait for a future vlog. Music was mentioned also, but we cover music in other vlogs, so be sure to look for those as well.
(Ex. Part 2) The How-To-Create synchronize TTS to Human Model exhibit. A Vlog on how we developed the VO elements originally presented in Part 1.
As always check back in for more on this topic and other fun and useful information!
Active in a number of key simulation and training markets, Visual Purple offers you the possibility to change the way people train, through its state-of-the-art technology platforms in Virtual Worlds, Embedded Training and Decision-Based Simulations. Learn more...
